Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • North Macedonia
  • United Kingdom
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Montenegro
  • France
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Czechia
  • Armenia
  • Slovakia
  • Austria

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $589,942$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,734,575.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 360.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,734,575.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,254$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,871.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,871.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $572,688$ on 2020-12-05

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,684,647$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,252$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,053.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,053.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,488,019$ on 2020-12-05

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,709,991$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59,514$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,844.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(37,844.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $754,169$ on 2020-12-05

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,311$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,901$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,538$ on 2020-12-05

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,710,379$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61,111$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,216.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(44,216.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,645,618$ on 2020-12-05

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,768$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,922$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,812$ on 2020-12-05

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,879$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,016.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 302.9)}}\) (asimptote \(136,016.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $530$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,484.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 284.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,484.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,540$ on 2020-12-05

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,334,626$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,801,493.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 388.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,801,493.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55,073$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,046.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,046.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,104,561$ on 2020-12-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Czechia recovered 69%
Armenia recovered 45%
Slovakia recovered 39%
Austria recovered 38%
Poland recovered 21%
Romania recovered 19%
Portugal recovered 17%
Italy recovered 6%

Czechia⮸

Population $10,708,981$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $544,179$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{580,481.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 237.7)}}\) (asimptote \(580,481.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,815$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,695$ on 2020-12-05

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,959$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,309$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,631.1}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 471.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,631.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,584$ on 2020-12-05

Slovakia⮸

Population $5,459,642$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $115,462$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $981$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,525$ on 2020-12-05

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $300,689$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,757$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,491$ on 2020-12-05